Featured in the Future Transport London Newsletter January 2025
Oxford Street again
Sadiq Khan has resurrected the plan, first put forward by Simon Hughes in his manifesto for the mayoralty in 2004 and taken up by Ken Livingstone in 2006, to remove all traffic from Oxford Street. The original scheme was effectively killed by conservative controlled City of Westminster council which confined its plans to some minor pavement widening and the removal of some bus routes.
Labour took over the council in 2022 and came up with a new plan, reported in this newsletter in January 2024, which included more and wider pavements, wider pedestrian crossings, longer green signals for pedestrians and more formal crossing points. They also proposed to remove the diamond crossing at Oxford Circus and replace it with longer crossing times over each road facilitated by a ban on turning traffic. Some minor changes in bus routeing would be necessitated. The Mayor plans to establish a Mayoral Development Corporation (MDC), similar to the one for Old Oak Common, that would have its own planning powers and be able to overrule Westminster council.
City of Westminster are aggrieved that Sadiq Khan has ridden over Westminster plans by once again proposing full pedestrianisation and is demanding £20 million in compensation for the costs involved. Cllr Adam Hug, leader of the council, has written to the Mayor about a number of issues including provisions for cycling, the impact on older people, people with disabilities and families with young children, and alternative plans for the buses.
Heathrow’s third runway
Despite aviation’s known disastrous effect on the climate, plans for a third runway at Heathrow are actively being revived. As Tracey Boles said in The Times on 24th September, ‘The political mood seems to have tilted back towards economic growth and away from the green agenda’. Heathrow has unveiled plans to invest £2.3bn in upgrading the airport over the next two years
Heathrow is the world’s busiest international airport with Amsterdam, Dubai and Paris not far behind, and the airport’s owners are anxious to stay ahead. This is obviously important for their profits but they also say, and the government appears to agree with them, that international trade depends on increased airline capacity.
However, 64 per cent of UK travellers are on holiday and only 12 per cent are travelling on business. Furthermore, the New Economics Foundation reckons that two thirds of flights from London City Airport could be made by train and Campaign for Better Transport thinks that the majority of domestic and European flights could be made by train. 15 percent of flyers make 70 per cent of flights. 57 per cent don’t fly at all. Maybe a Frequent Flyer Levy would discourage some of those who fly a lot.
All this suggests that there could be far less flying whilst still maintaining air links for economic purposes. But the cost of train travel is another issue.
HS2 to Euston
It is clear that the vision of an ultra-high speed rail network for Britain has bitten the dust. The 120 miles between Old Oak Common and Birmingham is being built for continental-size trains travelling at 360 kph but all the trains will be built to the restricted British loading gauge so that they are able to run beyond Birmingham on the existing railway.
Despite this the proposed tunnel between Old Oak Common and Euston is to be built to the same size as the rest of the line, perhaps in the vain hope that one day HS2 might link up with HS1. But, in the short term, is there any point in this if all trains are built to the smaller size? Would it not be possible to integrate this section with the existing railway instead of building an entirely new line, thus saving a considerable sum of money?
A cheaper alternative to a totally new line was proposed in a blog by Lord Tony Berkeley in 2016. HS2 trains would join the fast line of the West Coast main line near Queen’s Park. The West Coast fast trains remaining after HS2 has taken most of them could transfer to the slow lines and slow trains could transfer to the Lioness line (Euston to Watford Overground) which is lightly used after the Bakerloo line trains which share its tracks disappear underground. This would involve far less tunnelling and would make redundant much of the vast building site which currently disfigures Euston.
Free public transport
The campaign to win free public transport fares for all was boosted by a public meeting organised by Fare Free London on 29th September. There is a powerful case for making travel free for all and not just for the elderly, the young and people with disability. It is a social justice measure, opening up London to all who live there, particularly low-income households. But it would also help make public transport Londoners’ first choice for getting around, boosting public transport use, reducing the number of cars on the roads and helping to meet our climate target.
It is not a new idea and examples of free public transport are becoming common around the world. Several cities in Brazil, in the United States and France offer free local public transport and in Britain there are several cities which run free inner-city shuttle services around the town.
The conference papers explained how such a service could be funded. First of all, the government could increase its contribution to TfL. Currently 70 per cent of TfL’s revenue comes from the fare box. By comparison, Paris gets 26 per cent, New York 38 per cent. Cities such as Paris and New York have ‘mobility taxes’ in which employers contribute to funding. Other methods of raising money include road user charging and land value capture (where the value of property increases because of nearby transport improvements).
There is evidence that in places where it has been introduced the introduction of free public transport has improved air quality, reduced the number of cars on the roads and contributed to general welfare.
New plans for Liverpool Street
It is predicted that by 2050 passenger numbers at Liverpool Street, already the busiest station in the UK, will hit 140 million a year - a 75 per cent increase on last year's 80 million. To cope with this the station needs to be upgraded but this revamp is dependent on money from development. The scheme originally proposed involved building a skyscraper on top of the grade II* listed Andaz Hotel (formerly the Great Eastern) but was widely condemned for wrecking the appearance of the station’s 19th century building.
The new scheme is designed by Friedrich Ludewig of Acme, who said ‘we will retain the sense of a tall and airy concourse, with a flexible workspace building above to fund the development of the station at street level’. He proposes a smaller new building with 16 instead of 21 storeys designed to be more sympathetic to the grade II listed station and the hotel.
The scheme would result in an increase in the circulation area for passengers. The concourse itself and the ticket hall would be enlarged with wider gatelines and links to Broadgate and Bishopsgate.
Changes would include doubling the number of escalators from four to eight, new toilets, step free access across the station and seven new lifts. A new set of escalators would lead up to an expanded mezzanine level which would become a public route leading directly from the station’s main entrance on Liverpool Street to Exchange Square. This 230m long walkway would flank the entire length of the station’s western wall, providing new views of the building’s train shed.
The Victorian Society, however, has said that the revised proposal has not addressed objections raised by the previous plan.
Tram-train for route 358
It seems most people would like a tram but perhaps a bus which looks like a tram is the next best thing. The new buses, described as ‘ieTram’ (the ie stands for Irizar Electric), finally introduced on route 358 between Crystal Palace and Orpington, fits the bill.
Like most new buses in London it is all electric. The battery can be charged in six minutes at each end of its run. The buses incorporate a number of modern features including a safer front end design and cameras in place of mirrors to give drivers a better all-round view. There are audible warnings to alert pedestrians and other road users and a speed limiting device linked to speed limits.
When FTL visited recently a number of the buses were out of service apparently because of teething problems and were replaced by conventional vehicles.
Northern line to Clapham Junction
From its inception people asked why the Northern line extension stopped at Battersea Power Station. Why could it not be extended for two and a half kilometres to Clapham Junction? It would be an admirable exchange point for commuters travelling from the southwest and aiming for the City or the West End. It would also bring the underground to a new part of London and could unlock the development potential which Wandsworth council are angling for.
The first answer is to recall how the line got to Battersea Power Station. It was part funded by developers and there is no sign yet of developer interest in Clapham Junction. Where would the money come from?
There is another objection which was raised when the suggested extension was first mooted. The line would almost certainly be highly successful and attract so many passengers that trains would already be full when getting to Battersea Power Station and increase overcrowding on the Northern line right into central London.
There is another plan to increase connectivity from Clapham Junction and that is for Crossrail 2 which would also enable passengers to access the West End. Maybe that is a better plan for Clapham Junction, or maybe one day there will be room for both.
Silvertown Tunnel
The Silvertown Tunnel is scheduled to open in spring 2025. The tolls for it and the Blackwall Tunnel for cars will be £1.50 (£4 in the peak periods – morning going north and evenings going south). There will be exemptions and discounts including reduced charges for residents in nearby boroughs. Greenwich Cllr David Gardner responded to the news by saying: ‘The result is a travesty. Charges lower than a standard bus fare for cars, free for HGVs at night with the bonus of a dedicated HGV lane. No mention of the Mayor’s objective of reducing London traffic by 25% by 2030.’
Initially there will be three bus routes: 108 continuing through Blackwall and 129 and SL4 through Silvertown. This will increase the number of buses crossing the Thames at this point from six to 21. Residents in local boroughs will be entitled to free bus travel for the first year. Also guaranteed for a year is free transport through Silvertown for cyclists.
Travelling in London
Recent release of data by TfL reveals trends in population and travel habits which will have an impact on TfL’s services.
It has been clear for some time that working from home has reduced rush hour travel leading to a reduced need for buses and trains retained solely for those times. Whilst there has also been an increase in demand for transport in the weekends, overall, the number of trips each person makes is on the decline. This could call into the question the need for more expensive rail lines such as Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo line expansion.
Car ownership is declining in inner London but rising in outer London. In inner London 62 per cent of households have no access to a car, whereas in outer London the percentage is 33. Access to public transport is one factor but another is that fewer young people are driving – only 46 per cent or young people in their 20s hold a driving licence.
Despite the determined effort to increase the number of cycle lanes, cycling remains a niche mode of transport. In 2023 4.5 per cent of trips were made by bicycle and a large percentage of cyclists are teenagers who are short of cash and have no driving licence.
Finally, on a more optimistic note, the steady increase in the number of underground stations with step-free access is rising, although there is still a long way to go before mobility impaired passengers have the same freedom to travel as able-bodied people.
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